Boise St. -9 over Tulsa

Well we are in a bit of a slump but still have a great record for the NFL and College Football this year. We are 26-13 for 66%! We try to get back on track tonight with the Boise St. versus Tulsa game.

The Boise St. Broncos have been running roughshod over everyone they have played and we expect that to happen tonight.

Boise St. -9 over Tulsa

Boise St. seemed to fall asleep last week against UC Davis winning by ONLY 18 points. But that is the way it is with Boise St. this year. Everyone expects them to totally dominate everyone they play…especially the so called small college teams. Well, we are also guilty of  that. We expect Boise St. to be focused knowing that in order to get any type of chance at a national championship they are going to have to crush many of these teams they are playing.

So tonight we are taking the Broncos -9 to beat Tulsa even though Tulsa is probably a little better than some believe and they are at home. However, the onl quality team they have faced was Oklahoma and Oklahoma absolutely crushed them, winning 45-0. We don’t see the Broncos winning by that much but it would not be a surprise to see them win by  a few touchdowns.

On another note in this game. The total seems low to us at 55.5. We are not going to make a play on the total in this game but if we had to (you know, a gun to our head) we would take the over 55.5.

Boise St. 42 Tulsa 21

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We are taking the Buffalo Bills -6 over the Cleveland Browns.

We go 1-1 in college football yesterday to bring our record to 26-11, for 70%

This pick is not so much a ringing endorsement for the Buffalo Bills but a condemnation of the God awful Cleveland Browns.

The Browns can’t play defense, they can’t play offense, and they hate their coach! My God. What a mess these Browns are. The Bills are nothing to write home about but they are capable of playing good ball.

The Bills really need to start getting good production out of Trent Edwards and Terrell Owens. If Owens does not have a big game soon his head is liable to explode.

Buffalo -6 over Cleveland

The Bills are better than they seem. Yes, they truly are. The Bills started the season out with a game against the Patriots they absolutely should have won. They let the Patriots off the hook and Brady made them pay for it.

Since then the only decent game the Bills have played is against the Bucs. And really, was that game a good test of how good the Bills are? NO, they got by but the Bucs are awful. The Bills then played a game agains the Saints that was much better than it looks on paper. Then the Bills go to Miami and completely lay an egg. We think this is the turning point in the season for the Bills and that they come out focused and take care of business against probably the third or fourth worse team in the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns? They can’t score, they can’t stop anyone, and they seem they would rather punch their coach in the face than play quality football. We like Buffalo by at least 10.

Buffalo 27 Cleveland 13

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Dallas -7 versus the Kansas City Chiefs is our top play of the day.

We went 1-1 in college football to bring our record to 26-11, for a 70% win percentage.

Let’s just get real for a minute or two here. There is a perception by many NFL fans that the Dallas Cowboys are an elite team. That simply is NOT true…at least as of now. The Cowboys have struggled this year and will continue to do so unless Tony Romo raises the level of his play and the Dallas defense makes key stops when they really need to. Having said that we are going to go with the Cowboys -7 (buying the 1/2 point) against Kansas City.

Dallas -7 (buying a 1/2 point) over Kansas City

The Cowboys get a big break today going into their bye week next week. They face a HORRIBLE Kansas City team. Think about this…the Chiefs are 0-4 this year and lost to possibly the second worse team in the league, the Oakland Raiders.

We expect the Cowboys to be hungry after a narrow loss to the Denver Broncos. Tony Romo must play better and the Cowboys MUST get more production from their wide receivers. The Cowboys are better than the Chiefs at almost every position and the fact that this game is in K.C. we think means very little. A hungry Dallas team comes out and gets aggressive and puts the Chiefs away early.

Dallas 27 Kansas City 14

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TCU to cover the 10 points against Air Force

So far this year we are 25-10 for a fantastic 71%/. We try to continue our hot streak with TCU -10 versus Air Force.

TCU -10 over Air Force

4-0 TCU travels to Air Force to face the 3-2 Falcons as 10 point road favorites. Giving points on the road is not always a great angle but we really like TCU in this spot. Why? Both teams are explosive on offense but TCU can really put the points on the board and they are not just a one dimensional team. Both teams have had solid starts to the season on offense but we think TCU does what they want to do against Air Force.

We look for TCU to continue to pile the points up against an Air Force team that has not looked real good this year.

TCU 41 Air Force 20

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Ohio St. to cover the 16 points against Wisconsin

We have started the first month and change of the NFL and College football seasons absolutely on fire. We are a documented 25-10 for a sizzling 71%!

Ohio St. -16 over Wisconsin

It is not often that a 5-0 team is a 16 point favorite over a 4-1 team from the same conference but in the case of the Buckeyes and Badgers we think it is justified. Th big differences between these two teams is the Ohio St. defense compared to the Wisconsin defense.

Ohio St. can play some defense, they are only allowing an average of 11.8 points a game compared to the Badgers defense that is allowing a disastrous 24.6 per game. And that is where and why we think Ohio St. covers this spread.

Offensively the Badgers score about six points a game more thant the Buckeyes (35 to  29) but they have done it against some bad teams. Ohio St. has not averaged as many points per game  but they have faced better competition than Wisconsin.

We look for Ohio St. to cause the Badgers offense a lot of problems and to create a lot of turnvoers which should lead to some easy offensive points for the Buckeyes.

Ohio St.  35 Wisconsi 13

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A Disciplined Approach to Sports Betting

Betting on sports is a unique opportunity in the gambling world. If approached as an investment, with a cool head and disciplined manner, it can and will be profitable for you.

Betting on sports is a unique opportunity in the gambling world. Unlike Blackjack, Roulette, and Slot Machines, it does not have a built-in house edge that can never be overcome. No matter how good of a Blackjack player you are, you will still lose 51% of the time over the long term (unless you‘re counting cards, of course). It simply cannot be avoided. Additionally, you are not playing against nearly infinite long odds as with lotteries. If approached as an investment, with a cool head and disciplined manner, it can and will be profitable for you. Precision Plays has put together the following primer for sports betting. These are the methods we employ in our wagering and we have shown a profit for our clients each and every year in 2001.

Never chase your losses. Your sports picks will lose and periodically several times in a row. There’s no avoiding it, but by doubling up your next bet or following some progressive scheme where the stakes constantly increase, your losses will only mount. Figure out why you lost and learn from it. Sometimes the reason can’t be determined, but often it can.

Establish a fixed bankroll, unit size, and fiscal period. For example, $1000 to wager over the course of an NFL season. Your unit size should not be more than 2% of your bankroll. In this example, you would bet $20 on each football pick. After 50 bets you would have turned over your bankroll ($20 X 50=$1000). At this point, you can either cash out any money above $1000 as profit or roll it over into your bankroll and increase your unit size accordingly.

Never vary your unit size lightly, unless it is to decrease it. It should ALWAYS be tied to your bankroll. Precision Plays occasionally decreases our unit size on certain bets we feel may cash, but are also riskier (and therefore more profitable). Decreasing unit size should be temporary and rare. A fixed unit is always best.

Never vary your bankroll lightly. It should be an amount you can lose with no financial hardship at all. The best way to increase it is with profits.

See your fiscal period through before varying it. In the above example, we gave an entire football season as the fiscal period. It does not matter what it is – a half season, a month, even a week. Several things may happen regarding the fiscal period and these are the best responses:

You reach your turnover point before the fiscal period ends. Simply remove your profits or increase your bankroll and unit size and continue on to its end.

You’ve reached the end of the fiscal period with a loss. Continuing with the same example, you’ve reached the end of football season and have $800 left out of your original $1000. Our recommendation is to go into the next fiscal period with the smaller bankroll and unit size. In this case, a bankroll of $800 and unit size of $16. Be sure to study your sports picks to determine why they lost, if possible. Never increase your bankroll, unless you show a profit. Making solid sports picks is a learning curve and it is better to lose a little money while learning and improving than a lot.

You’ve lost your entire bankroll before the fiscal period ends. Stop. The fiscal period is there to prevent you from getting into financial trouble. Our recommendation if this happens is to temporarily quit betting your sports picks with real money and make virtual bets, using all of the above methods, until you can turn a virtual ‘profit‘. Remember, learning curve – better to lose less money while learning than more. Even better to lose none.

Fixed bankroll, fixed unit size, fixed fiscal period and the discipline these instill are what is called Money Management and it is absolutely essential to being a successful sports bettor and avoiding financial troubles. Money Management is equally as important as studying stats and trends and making solid plays. Some would argue it is even more important.

Shop for odds and lines and get the best one for your pick. A point or half-point in the line can be the difference between winning your play and losing it, and a few cents here and there will add up over the years. I calculated this during the baseball season of 98, noting every time I found better odds and how many cents. Had I played the first odds, I would have profited less by $580. Simply shopping around created an improvement of 2 percentage points in profit for that season.

Make solid sports picks, do your homework, and keep detailed records. There is no perfect way of picking a good play. I know over a dozen professional sports gamblers and each has a different method that works. Some focus exclusively on line and odds movements. Some on long-term trends, some on seasonal and situation trends, others on performance stats, and various combinations of these methods. All have demonstrated success in their wagering. So there is no secret ‘system’ or method. Try everything, seek new ways. Once you have demonstrated a profit over the long term, you’ve found the way to do it right.

Avoid the two great myths of sports betting: ‘Vegas’ and ‘the Public‘. You yourself are the public. It is made up of, yes, dweebs without the first clue, but also sharp players, decent players and players in between. It is a spectrum. ‘Vegas’ doesn’t exist in the sense of some secret group of geniuses out to get your money, setting ‘traps‘, and knowing something about a matchup that you don’t. It is simply an odds marketplace, and a worldwide one at that with the advent of this Internet thing.

This marketplace does NOT gamble. It is influenced entirely by supply and demand, like any marketplace. If there is demand for a certain product, say, Oreo cookies, its price will increase, until the demand levels off. If there is great demand, its price will increase greatly. At the same time, Oreo’s competitor, Fig Newtons, will lower its price appropriately, until the marketplace achieves balance. That is how the lines and odds market works. Exactly and without the least bit of difference. If the Sonics are a 5 point dog in LA, this simply means the demand for LA -5 bets exceeds the demand for Seattle +5 bets. The price of LA bets will increase until demand levels off and at the same time the ?price? of Seattle bets will fall until absolute balance is achieved. Seattle will go to +5.5 or +6 and so on. So ‘Vegas’ is the inhuman marketplace governed by the laws of supply and demand and ‘the Public’ is simply the millions of consumers setting the prices – odds and lines – by their choices. Consuming some bets (LA -5) at a higher rate than others (Seattle +5).

Remember, the dog is there to win the game. Don’t buy a product simply because it is more popular than another (Yankees -300, Ray-bans $700 a pair). Perhaps another product, a much cheaper one, will work just as well (Devil Rays +190, Cheap Sunglasses $9.95).

To learn more about how you can succeed at sports betting, please visit Precision Plays

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NFL Week Four betting selections.

We went 5-3 yesterday to bring our overall record to 25-12 for a strong 68%. We look to continue the hot streak today with six selections.

New England -3 over Baltimmore

Baltimore has probably been the best team in the NFL so far this year….but we think they lose this game by at least a TD today. Look for Brady to have a strong game and look for the Patriot defense to cause Joe Flaaco some problems.

The Patriots have struggled defensively this year but we think this is the game they step up and play much better.

New England 23 Baltimore 14

NY Giants -9.5 over Kansas City

We don’t usually like to give this many points on the road but the Giants are a really good and really focused team right now and the Chiefs are just awful. Not much to say here. The Giants do as they please and blow the Chiefs out.

NY Giants 37 Kansas City 14

Houston -7.5 over Oakland

Wow. The Raiders are bad, really bad. They have no offense. Defensively they can be run on. They are a mess in the coaching area….they are just a disaster. Houston has some issues of their own but they can move the ball and have enough defense to give Russell all sorts of problems.

Houston 27 Oakland 14

Tampa +7.5 over Washington

How in the heck can Washington be favored by 7.5 over anyone? Really, how does that happen? Sure, the Bucs are awful but have you seen the Redskins play. They are about as bad and on top of that have Howdy Doody Jim Zorn as their coach. It seems like the Redskins have quit on Zorn and that his days are severely numbered. Tampa Bay might not win this game but should be able to keep it close and we would not be surprised to see the Bucs win outright.

Washington 17 Tampa Bay 14

New York Jets +6 over New Orleans

This is a terrific matchup. The Jets are really good on defense and solid on offense. The Saints are great on offense and ok on defense. We like the Saints to win a close game but not cover the six points. The Jets are for real….they have a lot of confidence and they have the ability to make HUGE plays on offense and defense. We think the Jets keep this game close and we would not be surprised to see them win outright.

New Orleans 24 NY Jets 21

Denver Broncos +3 over Dallas

This is a hunch play for us. The Broncos get their stearnest test today against a Cowboy team that has not played really well this year. Denver’s defense has been outstanding, although they have not played tough competition, and their offense has been able to run the ball. We think Denver keeps this game really close throughout and pulls out the win late in the game.

Denver 21 Dallas 20

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We have eight college football selections for Saturday October  3rd, 2009 with Penn St. leading the way.

It is not often you will see us with this many selections for a day but there are a lot of good games on the board today, at least that is our opinion. Since we have a lot of selections and time is running out before the games start we need to get this post up. So we will not have any writeups on these games. Just who we like.

Michigan vs. Michigan St. UNDER 56

Virginia Tech -16 over Duke

Alabama vs. Kentucky OVER 47.5

Mississippi -9.5 over Vanderbilt

Georgia Tech Mississippi St OVER 47

Indiana +17.5 over Ohio St.

Penn St. -7 over Illinois

Penn St. vs. Illinois UNDER 47

This week in college football we are going to start seeing the cream rise to the top and the wannebes will be exposed. It is a big day for teams like USC and Cal. We do not have a play in that game but it is the game we are most interested in (besides the games we are playing).

Technorati Tags: best sports betting systems, ncaa football predictions, penn st, penn st versus illinois

Back with more news for you today. It’s amazing how much good information there is on this stuff out there if you know where to look. Three in particular that I found really valuable were…

Baseball Betting Trends for Monday

Ron Raymond provides sports betting information via his Sports Betting Blog and users can get his winning NFL Football picks. … ATS SUPER SYSTEMS … Florida Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves odds – Baseball Betting Wild Card » …

Baseball Betting Strategy, Tips & Systems | MLB Runlines

Mid Season NFL Betting Tips. Baseball Playoffs Betting Strategies … Baseball's Best Drills Tips and Strategies | Best Baseball Ebooks Over 180 baseball drills, tips and strategies. Free lifetime updates … Baseball Betting Systems. …

Baseball Betting Systems – How To Win At Baseball Betting

Many people are earning fortune through the baseball betting systems for quite a few years. Not all the policies and systems are going to work for you because no one can say that your victory is guaranteed for this match. …

Hope you enjoy the read as much as I did and please if you have something to say, use the comments form below to let everyone know your thoughts.

Have a great day!

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